Country may face gas shortfall of around 2.7bcfd by 2014

KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to face a gas shortfall of around 2.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2014 due to around 7.0 per cent per annum rise in the demand for the commodity.

Experts believe that the gas shortage will increase by 1.7 billion cubic feet per day during the current year and would touch around 2.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2014.

If projects, such as Uch-II, Qadirpur gas compression project, Sinjhoro and Tando Allah Yar, start production during the next two years, it is expected that the gas shortage will come down to 2.2 billion cubic feet per day by 2014.

“The government should take concrete measures to overcome gas shortfall in the future,” they said.

“We believe that the government will give top priority to domestic and industrial sectors, as these sectors do not have alternative energy resources,” said Farhan Mehmood, head of research at the Topline Securities Limited.

Sector-wise data showed that 32 per cent of the countryís gas is being consumed by the power sector, followed by 25 per cent by industries, 17 per cent by domestic consumers and the remaining by fertilizer, cement and transport sectors.

The country faces acute energy crisis, resulting in the rise for the demand of gas by the power sector, which under present circumstances, will persist for the next few years. The actual demand for gas by the power sector will remain higher by 65 per cent, (more than 600 million million cubic feet per day) during the current year, as compared to last year.

The overall demand is expected to rise by 4.1 billion cubic feet per day this year to 5.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2014. In 2010 and 2011, the demand is projected to increase by 14 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, owing to higher load on the dual-fired plants for power generation, the experts said.

“Though several gas projects are in the pipeline, which could improve the supply, we believe that due to delay in execution of several projects and litigations, the gas supply will witness a marginal increase,” Mehmood said.

“Additional gas production from Tal and Latif blocks helped minimise gas shortage by 250-300 million million cubic feet per day,” he said.

The projects, which are already in the pipeline included Uch-II development plan (160mmcfd), Sinjhoro project (31mmcfd) and Tando Allah Yar project (278mmcfd).

Source The News