Monday, November 1, 2010

Problematic tax reforms

The international community has stressed upon the government to effectively bring influential groups into the tax net. — File Photo
Revenue expansion continues to be one of the biggest challenges for the economy. Policy makers agree that without sustainable revenue growth, the state cannot step up development, reduce poverty and provide efficient service delivery. As a result, it can neither improve living standards of the people nor think of economic and political sovereignty.

The international community has stressed upon the government to effectively bring influential groups into the tax net while seeking its support for long-term macroeconomic stability and economic recovery.


It is in this background that two different review missions of the World Bank and the IMF have simultaneously arrived in Islamabad to exchange first quarter data on fiscal operations and macroeconomic indicators and to assess how much funding the country needed in the short to medium-term period to remain afloat. "The IMF is unlikely to agree to the release of $1.7 billion tranche before December, at least on the basis of expenditure and revenue position", according to a government official.

The visits would perhaps set the direction for rolling over the remaining $3.5 billion of the standby arrangement (SBA) into a new short-term programme on fresh terms and conditions, premature termination of the programme or completion of the programme with some extensions.

The government has apparently been dragging its feet on implementation of key revenue measures that it had itself agreed to with the multilateral agencies as part of $11.3 billion SBA that should have been concluded by November this year.

The idea for revenue expansion through value added tax that was aimed at removing excessive tax exemptions evaporated before its introduction. The re-coined reformed general sales tax (RGST) continued to face bureaucratic and political hurdles and has missed publicly proclaimed deadlines twice, with no clear signs of its implementation in sight as the centre and provinces fail to resolve the mechanism for input adjustments on tax on services.

In the process, however, the first quarter data suggest that the provincial share of taxes has remained short by six per cent of the target set under the new National Finance Commission award.

Lower than targeted revenue collection in the first quarter by more than Rs47 billion has been a major factor towards 1.6 per cent fiscal deficit against a revised target of 1.4 per cent of GDP and fourth consecutive breach of the deficit target agreed to with the IMF. The earlier three breaches of fiscal deficit targets had led to blockade of inflows from the IMF since May this year and subsequently from other lending partners.

An inordinate delay in disbursement of $2.5 billion coalition support fund (CSF) for expenditures Pakistan has already incurred on war on terror or in providing logistic support to foreign forces in Afghanistan has further aggravated the government's fiscal position. This has forced the government to bank heavily on expensive borrowing not only from the central bank but also from the commercial banking sector, leaving little room for the private sector to expand and generate more jobs and revenues, already suffering because of massive energy shortfalls.

Apart from renewed calls for taxing the rich to generate more fiscal space for development that has always suffered because of higher non-development expenditure, primarily on debt servicing, security and running of the governments, the international lenders have a different take on government's revenue effort and overall fiscal performance that remained short of budget targets.

"Planned policy reforms lost momentum as pressures on foreign reserves eased and calls for higher spending increased", according to the Asian Development Bank. No wonder then that the fiscal deficit at 6.3 per cent of GDP (fiscal year ending June 30, 2010) was substantially higher than 5.3 per cent of GDP outcome in fiscal 2009 and deficit target of 5.1 per cent.

Even though the public sector development programme was slashed by a fifth to 3.5 per cent of GDP, this cut was insufficient to offset increased outlays for security, subsidies and transfers to provincial governments.
Actual development spending rose by 7.8 per cent but was significantly below its planned level. Reduction in development spending, which fell 14.5 per cent short of its target, cut heavily into infrastructure outlays. "This compression of development spending to rein in deficit is both undesirable and counterproductive, as substantial infrastructure improvements are needed to support investment in the delivery of basic public services", the ADB said.

The bank said that ratio of federal tax revenue to GDP fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years as tax collection declined from 9.1 of GDP in fiscal year 2009 to nine in fiscal 2010, well below the 9.4 per cent target. A major factor was the sustained contraction of the telecommunications and finance sectors, both of which are heavy taxpayers.

But analysts believed that more than the economic conditions, the tax machinery has to be blamed for huge and widespread leakages in the tax system, not only through delayed implementation of RGST and other reforms process, but also through the weakening of the audit system on the back of too much reliance on self-assessment and a-step-forward two-backwards on computerisation of the system on modern lines.

Simply put, the tax machinery is reluctant in giving up its powers, discretion and the resultant underhand earnings in the process. They said the revenue could get over Rs500 billion a year only by plugging the loopholes and scaling down corruption in the tax system. Duping the two finance ministers into rejecting a valuable computerised customs system through fake 'security concerns' of the intelligence agencies by the tax authorities, is just the tip of an iceberg.

It is not out of place then that the World Bank mission wants introduction of taxpayer ledger system as a key to the successful introduction of RGST for the registered taxpayers, especially wholesalers, dealers and retailers. The bank believed that general ledger for each taxpayer should be constructed using taxpayer, tax type, tax period to register an entry for every financial transaction so that data and statements provided by taxpayers in one form of tax could be cross checked with another form of tax. For example sales tax data could be verified through income tax system for the same person and smoothen the refund systems.

For this to achieve, the World Bank wants the taxpayer numbers to be converted into an eight digit national tax number by January 2011. Complete eradication of corruption and evasion in the tax system may not be possible, but it could certainly be minimised.

No comments: